Anyway, here goes. In the interest of avoiding confusion, I should let my rabid readers know that the won-loss records are the team's records from 2008. I'm only interested in predicting where the team's finish, not records. You shouldn't be gambling during these tough economic times, anyway!
1st Place - Chicago White Sox
(2008 - 1st Place, 89-74)
This is almost a pick out of spite than out of any real logic. Who am I spiting, you ask? The people who don't give the White Sox the respect they deserve. The 2005 White Sox were arguably the most dominant baseball team since the 1998 Yankees; they won 99 games and then steamrolled through the playoffs, losing only 1 game total against teams with loads more postseason experience than they had in the Red Sox, the Angels, and the Astros. Did they go to their bench even once in that playoff run? They pretty much just said, "Here is our starting 9, here is our starting pitcher, and now we're going to beat the shit out of you." Which is what they did every night that season. In the process, they ended an 88-year old championship drought, which nobody cared about because the Red Sox ended an 86-year old drought the year before.
Why bring this all up? Because they did it when no one saw it coming. Last year, they did the same thing when no one saw it coming, defeating everyone's perennial darling, the Twins, in a one-game playoff to seal the AL Central Crown. Not enough people admit it, but the White Sox have more championship pedigree than the teams people pick to win this division, and that includes the Tigers, the Indians, and yes, even the Twins. I believe someone actually picked the White Sox to finish last in '09, which is laughable. Maybe it's because media types don't like Ozzie Guillen, and that's fine, but please be objective when making your picks. Nobody else in the division improved enough, although I would give the Indians a shot to win it, but nobody else. I wish I could talk about their players more, but you didn't let me. Around 90 wins for the Pale Hose.
2nd Place - Cleveland Indians
(2008 - 81-81, 3rd Place)
The success of the Indians rests on a couple of pitchers duplicating their 2008 performances. Can Cliff Lee go 22-2 again? Probably not. Can he come close to repeating that, is what will be key. Can new closer Kerry Wood stay injury-free (you will never see me use the word "healthy" interchangeably with "injury-free", by the way...HUGE pet peeve) as he did last year with the Cubs for the most part? The lineup, anchored by Grady Sizemore of Grady's Ladies should score some runs, but after Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona, the rotation is thin. Carl Pavano is the 3rd starter, followed by Scott Lewis as the 4th and Anthony Reyes as the 5th, which means that by the season's second week, Lewis will be the 3rd starter and Reyes will be the 4th.
3rd Place - Minnesota Twins
(2008 - 2nd Place, 88-75)
They usually exceed every expectation, but when I look at the Twins I see a team that will play competitively in the beginning of the year but will sputter around mid-August. Joe Mauer is having back problems, which could be a grave concern in a lineup that, when it includes Mauer, is not quite formidable. But the key to the Twins' success, as with most teams, is its pitching, and the rotation is solid, if not great. They will need Francisco Liriano to be injury-free if they hope to do anything this year, but there is no reason to believe he can come close to duplicating his stellar 2006 campaign, let alone stay on the field. As for the bullpen, as long as Joe Nathan is there, the bullpen should never be a liability, because they never seem to have trouble getting to him.
4th Place - Detroit Tigers
(2008 - 74-88, Last Place)
People are starting to realize that the Tigers are bad. At least that's what Mike Francesa says. The organization hasn't seemed to recover from their poor showing in the '06 World Series when the pitchers literally threw the Series away. Their quick downfall has been rather inexplicable, as they have only made upgrades to the lineup and the starting pitching has stayed the same. I guess it's not quite that inexplicable...the bullpen has been torn to shreds in the last few years. Joel Zumaya, who threw a deadly fastball and changeup, has not been able to stay on the field, and Todd Jones was removed from his closer role. Will the bullpen be able to stay together to give the Tigers a surprise division title. NO! The White Sox are winning the division.
5th Place - Kansas City Royals
(2008 - 75-87 - 4th Place)
This is one team that needs to be good again, and last year, they finally avoided the cellar. But to me, they need to avoid the cellar for a second straight year before I pick them to do anything exciting. They do appear to be on the right track; Joakim Soria did a fine job closing games for them. There were nice flashes from starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Brian Bannister. And CF David DeJesus is coveted by many teams, as is middle infielder Mike Aviles. John Buck is a mainstay at catcher. There is light on the horizon, but this is the kind of team that needs to play perfectly to beat the big boys.
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