This year, I've decided to start with the NL Central; baseball's most Mid-Western, and therefore, hospitable division.
1st Place - Chicago Cubs
(2008 - 1st Place, 97-64)
Although this team crashed and burned yet again in the NL Division Series, and their offseason moves were suspect, (trading away Mark DeRosa, getting Aaron "Home Run" Heilman a.k.a AaRUN on their team) they didn't lose any of their important pieces. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto and company headline the best lineup in the division, and their rotation, led by Carlos Zambrano, is formidable if not great, and enough to lead them to a 90 win season, enough for this division. They are, however, the Cubs, and that means disaster is always looming. Homer Heilman cannot see any important moments if this team is to go far.
2nd Place - Cincinnatti Reds
(2008 - 5th Place, 74-88)
The Reds should make a tremendous leap this year (finally). The rotation will be deceptively deep; who else can throw Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo at you? No one except the Reds, obviously. This team is about young players who seem to be emerging simultaneously; they are set and solid at nearly every position. Look for Jay Bruce to continue to develop, and Brandon Phillips, Jeff Keppinger, and Joey Votto to have breakout years. I was tempted to pick them to win the division, but their lack of experience and bullpen depth will deliver them to a cruel, cruel 2nd place finish, around 85 wins. Could that be enough for a wild card? Probably not.
3rd Place - Houston Astros
(2008 - 3rd Place, 86-75)
They usually underachieve, then overachieve, then underachieve again. So why will 2009 be different? It won't. Does this team even make offseason moves anymore? Ok, Pudge Rodriguez will at least solidify their defense at catcher, but this is a franchise that seems to be either shellshocked from getting swept in the 2005 World Series, or completely satisfied that they made it there. The lineup will still be tough and steroid-ridden as usual, and the rotation, which still has Roy Oswalt, is decent. Jose "Scary Looking" Valverde is the closer, who manages to compile saves, if not that intimidating in an actual game situation. Bottom line: Can give you a tough game or a stinker every night. Which pretty much makes them like every other baseball team. 82-79!
4th Place - Milwaukee Brewers
(2008 - 2nd Place, Wild Card, 92-70)
Losing C.C. Sabathia was obviously big for them (you heard it here first). As such, their starting rotation is in shambles, and their bullpen will be terrible. Their young position players will buoy them; they are too good for the team to completely stink, but they will not be good enough to repeat their 2008 postseason appearance, which I hope was satisfying, for their sake. Expect a .500 finish. Hey, at least Willie Randolph is on the team!
5th Place - St. Louis Cardinals
(2008 - 4th Place, 86-76)
Like the Astros, the Cards are another team that seemed to pour everything into getting a championship and then decided to rest on their laurels. Unlike the Astros, the Cards actually won a championship. But doesn't it seem that they haven't done anything to their team since? I wouldn't be surprised if Tony LaRussa showed up to Cardinals camp this spring and did a double-take when he saw short stop Khalil Greene and said, "Hey, we got Khalil Greene?" That's what the Cardinals feel like right now. However, they still have the best hitter in the world in reigning MVP Prince Albert Pujols, and Tony LaRussa is always good for 10 additional wins (and a case of Keystone Light on the drive from St. Louis to Kansas City). A slightly sub .500 finish.
6th Place - Pittsburgh Pirates
(2008 - 6th Place, 67 - 95)
Uggghhh. Hopeless. What is there to say? For forever, they have been a glorified farm organization for other teams. Tom Gorzelanny, who looked to be a stud, will toil in the minor leagues. The rotation will still be a relative strength of this team, with Ian Snell, Zach Duke, and Paul Maholm, and Ryan Doumit will be a good player for them until he is traded away to a team that has hope at the trading deadline. Supposedly, they received decent players in return for Jason Bay, Damaso Marte, and Xavier Nady last year, but I can't remember their names right now, and I'm not sure if Pirates fan do either.
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